10 Injured Pitchers Expected to Rebound in 2026
Injuries derailed some of the best arms in baseball over the past two years. But several elite pitchers are set to return—or already have—and could deliver serious value on AthX in 2026. Here are 10 pitchers to watch. Looking to trade on pitchers returning from injury? Sign up for AthX and deposit $50+ to get a free stock!
1. Gerrit Cole (New York Yankees)
The injury: Tommy John surgery, March 11, 2025 (Dr. Neal ElAttrache). Internal brace procedure. Missed entire 2025 season. Expected return: Mid-May to early June 2026 (14-month timeline). Why he could rebound: Cole is one of the best pitchers in baseball when healthy. He's targeting a 14-month recovery and has progressed through bullpen sessions at Yankee Stadium. The internal brace is designed to reduce reinjury risk. If he returns on schedule, the Yankees get their ace back—and AthX traders get a high-upside pitching asset. AthX angle: Watch Gerrit Cole's price leading into May. If the market prices in uncertainty, a successful return could push value higher.
2. Shohei Ohtani (Los Angeles Dodgers)
The injury: Tommy John surgery, September 2023. Returned to pitching June 2025; made 14 starts and threw 47 innings in 2025 (limited workload). Expected 2026 status: Full season as a two-way player. Why he could rebound: Ohtani is already back on the mound and building up. By 2026, he'll have a full offseason to prepare as both a hitter and pitcher. When Ohtani pitches, he's a Cy Young-caliber arm; when he hits, he's an MVP candidate. The combination is unmatched. AthX angle: Shohei Ohtani's price reflects his hitting production. Add in his pitching value for 2026, and he could be even more valuable than current levels suggest.
3. Christian Scott (New York Mets)
The injury: Tommy John surgery with internal brace, September 23, 2024. Missed entire 2025 season. Expected return: Opening Day 2026 (full spring training). Why he could rebound: Scott was one of the Mets' top pitching prospects before his elbow gave out. He's resumed throwing and is on track for a full spring training in 2026. If healthy, he slots into the Mets rotation with high strikeout upside. AthX angle: Christian Scott may be underpriced if the market is still discounting injury risk. A strong spring could change that.
4. Grayson Rodriguez (Baltimore Orioles)
The injury: Right elbow inflammation (spring training March 2025), right lat strain (mid-April). Debridement surgery August 11, 2025 (bone chips, bone spur). Did not start any games in 2025; last MLB start was July 31, 2024. Expected return: Spring training 2026; first start March/April 2026. Why he could rebound: Rodriguez is a 25-year-old ace-caliber arm when healthy. He was on the 60-day IL all of 2025. A full 2026 would restore his value as a top-of-the-rotation asset for AthX. AthX angle: Grayson Rodriguez's price likely reflects two lost seasons. If he's healthy for 25+ starts, he's a major rebound play.
5. Dustin May (Boston Red Sox)
The injury: Tommy John (2021), flexor tendon surgery (2023), esophageal surgery (2024). Made 5–7 starts (27+ IP) for the Dodgers in April–May 2025 before being moved to long relief and traded to Boston at the deadline. Expected 2026 status: Full season with Red Sox. Why he could rebound: May showed elite stuff in limited 2025 action (95 mph) but was inconsistent and traded. After years of injuries—including a life-threatening esophageal tear—a full 2026 in Boston would make him a rebound play. AthX angle: Dustin May is a high-upside arm if he stays on the field. His price may still reflect past uncertainty—watch for value.
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6. Roki Sasaki (Los Angeles Dodgers)
The injury: Right shoulder impingement; placed on IL May 13, 2025. Made 8 starts (34⅓ IP, 4.72 ERA) before injury. Returned late September as a reliever (scoreless in 2 IP, then excelled in playoffs). Expected 2026 status: Full season as a starter (Dodgers committed to rotation). Why he could rebound: Sasaki's 2025 debut was rocky (4.72 ERA in 8 starts), but he's a 23-year-old with a 102-mph fastball and a devastating splitter. He posted a 2.02 ERA over four seasons in Japan. A full offseason to adjust to MLB and recover from the shoulder issue could unlock his ceiling. AthX angle: Roki Sasaki's price may reflect his shaky debut. If he puts it together in 2026, early believers could benefit.
7. Clarke Schmidt (New York Yankees)
The injury: Tommy John surgery, July 2025 (torn UCL). Had 14 starts, 78⅔ IP, 3.32 ERA before injury (forearm tightness, removed after 3 IP vs. Toronto). Second Tommy John (first in 2017). Expected return: Mid-to-late 2026 (13–18 month recovery). Why he could rebound: Schmidt was excellent before his elbow gave out (28⅓ consecutive scoreless innings in June). A mid-season return in 2026 would make him a value play. AthX angle: Clarke Schmidt won't help early, but his return could boost value if you buy before he's back.
8. Tony Gonsolin (Los Angeles Dodgers)
The injury: Tommy John revision with internal brace and flexor cleanup, August 2025 (Dr. Neal ElAttrache). Made 7 starts (3-2, 5.00 ERA) before elbow pain after June 4 start; on 60-day IL since mid-June. Missed all of 2024 (TJ 2023). Expected return: Second half of 2026 (8–10 month recovery). Why he could rebound: Gonsolin won 16 games in 2022 and made the All-Star team. His injury history is real, but if he returns healthy, he has mid-rotation upside. AthX angle: [[Tony Gonsolin]]'s price may stay depressed until he's close to returning—watch for buying opportunities.
9. Ben Lively (Cleveland Guardians)
The injury: Tommy John surgery with flexor tendon repair, early June 2025 (Dr. Keith Meister). Felt forearm discomfort May 6 and May 12; exited May 12 start after 3 IP. Had 9 starts, 44⅔ IP, 3.22 ERA before surgery. Expected return: Mid-to-late 2026 (12–18 month timeline). Why he could rebound: Lively was a reliable starter for Cleveland before his elbow blew out. He won't help early in 2026, but if he returns and pitches well, he could be a second-half contributor. AthX angle: [[Ben Lively]] is a longer-term play. His price may stay depressed until he's close to returning—watch for buying opportunities.
10. Shane McClanahan (Tampa Bay Rays)
The injury: Nerve irritation in left triceps (spring training March 2025); opened 2025 on IL. Season-ending procedure late July 2025 (Dr. Steven Shin) to "clean up around the nerve." Made 0 MLB starts in 2025. Last MLB appearance was August 2, 2023 (before Tommy John August 2023). Expected return: Spring training 2026 (full season). Why he could rebound: McClanahan is a two-time All-Star when healthy. He's missed 2024 and 2025 due to Tommy John and then the nerve procedure. A full 2026 would make him one of the most valuable rebound arms on AthX. AthX angle: Shane McClanahan's price likely reflects two lost seasons. If he's healthy for 25+ starts, he's a major value.
How to Use This on AthX
Watch spring training. Health and velocity updates matter. If a rebound pitcher looks sharp, his price may move before opening day. Buy before the return. Prices often rise when a player gets activated. If you believe in the rebound, consider buying while the player is still on the IL. Diversify. Don't put all your AthX$ into one injured pitcher. Spread risk across multiple players—see our guide on player vs. team shares. Hold for dividends. If a rebound pitcher performs well, hold 30+ days to qualify for dividends.
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